In this article:
- The numbers that changed the race
- Why Trump’s approval rating is the real story
- The path to 51 seats
- What could still go wrong for Democrats
- One day to go
With just one day left before Americans head to the polls in the November 3 midterm elections, a final round of New York Times/Siena University surveys — the final NYT Siena poll of the cycle — has delivered the kind of headline Democrats have been waiting months for: their candidates are now leading in five Republican-held Senate states.
The polls, released Monday, show Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Alaska, with Iowa essentially tied and another lead in Michigan. If the NYT Siena poll numbers hold, Senate control — which most forecasters treated as a long shot for Democrats just weeks ago — is suddenly a live possibility.
NYT Siena poll: the numbers that changed the race
The headline figure comes from Texas, where Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by a 50 to 43 percent margin. It is a startling number for a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and it suggests the damage from Paxton’s bruising primary and mounting scandals is real.
The picture is similar in Kansas, where Democrat Chris Hamilton leads incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49 to 44 percent. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, and a victory there would signal something genuinely unusual happening in this cycle.
In Maine, Democrat Graham Platner is ahead of Republican Senator Susan Collins 51 to 45 percent. Collins has survived tough cycles before, but this is the largest deficit she has faced in a final-week poll. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted 49 to 44 percent — a rematch-friendly scenario for a candidate who has won statewide before.
Alaska is the tightest of the five: Democrat Mary Peltola edges Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48 to 46 percent, within any poll’s margin of error but still on the blue side of the ledger. Iowa, meanwhile, is effectively dead even, with Democrat Josh Turek at 48 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 47 percent. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers comfortably at 53 to 42 percent, keeping a Democratic-held seat firmly in the column.
Why Trump’s approval rating is the real story
Beneath the horse-race numbers sits a deeper problem for Republicans. Across the seven surveyed states, just 38 percent of likely voters approved of President Donald Trump’s job performance — an especially weak figure in places he carried by double-digit margins in 2024.
The issue driving the erosion is the cost of living. Democrats hold a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republicans on the economy across the battlegrounds, and they lead on that issue in all seven states polled. For a party that won two years ago promising to bring prices down, that number is an alarm bell.
NBC News’ polling average tells the same story nationally: Trump’s approval sits at 38 percent with 60 percent disapproving, and by 52 to 44 percent, Americans say they would prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress.
The path to 51 seats
The math is unforgiving but no longer fanciful. To take the Senate, Democrats must hold every seat they already have and flip at least four Republican-held seats, giving them 51 votes counting two independents who caucus with the party.
The final NYT Siena poll puts five such flips on the table — Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Alaska — with Iowa as a potential bonus. The House picture is tighter: Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a 218-seat majority, and NBC’s Decision Desk rates five Senate races and 11 House contests as pure toss-ups.
What could still go wrong for Democrats
The polls carry warnings alongside the good news. A meaningful slice of voters remains undecided, and among voters who say they made up their minds in the last month, Republicans actually lead by nine points — a late-breaking trend that has burned polling leads before.
Survey sizes were solid — ranging from 610 voters in Alaska to 1,215 in Texas — but state-level polls in Republican-leaning territory have a history of overestimating Democratic performance. Turnout dynamics on Election Day will decide whether these leads are real or a mirage.
One day to go
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot Tuesday. For months, the conventional wisdom said Democrats would gain House seats but fall short in the Senate. The final NYT Siena poll numbers suggest the upper chamber is genuinely in play — and that the cost-of-living anger that powered Trump’s 2024 comeback is now powering the backlash against his party.
Election night will show whether Democrats have built a wave or just a swell. But for the first time this cycle, the Senate map looks like a coin flip — and in a midterm environment this volatile, that is everything.