Oil prices moved higher early on Wednesday as Hormuz shipping attacks once again outweighed hopes that a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran might soon calm one of the world’s most important energy waterways. The rebound came after a bruising session in which prices had fallen to their lowest levels in two months, and it underlined how quickly sentiment in the oil market can turn when tankers in the Gulf come under fire.
Traders began the day weighing two very different stories. On one side, there were signs that Washington was in no hurry to launch further military action against Iran, and talk of a possible understanding between the two sides. On the other, a steady drumbeat of incidents in the Strait of Hormuz was reminding the market that the physical movement of oil through the narrow channel remains at risk, whatever diplomats say.
Hormuz shipping attacks lift Brent and WTI from two-month lows
Brent crude rose 71 cents, or 0.78%, to $92.20 a barrel by 0119 GMT on Wednesday, November 11. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 49 cents, or 0.57%, to $86.53 a barrel. The gains were modest in percentage terms, but they mattered because they followed a sharp fall in the previous session, when oil had dropped to its lowest point in about two months.
That earlier sell-off had been driven by relief. US officials had played down the need for more military strikes against Iran, which encouraged traders to unwind some of the risk premium that had been built into prices during weeks of tension. At one point in that session, oil fell by more than $3 a barrel. The recovery began later, however, after an Iranian security official said no talks were taking place — a reminder that the diplomatic picture was far less settled than the market had first assumed.
The pattern is now familiar to anyone following the Gulf this autumn: hopes of de-escalation push prices down, and fresh reports of shipping incidents push them back up. On Wednesday, the second force was winning, at least in early trading.
A volatile week: from two-month lows to a rebound
The swings of the past two sessions show how sensitive oil has become to headlines from the region. A fall of more than $3 in a single session is a large move for Brent, and it reflected a market that had been pricing in a real chance of wider conflict. When that fear eased, even briefly, sellers moved quickly.
Yet the rebound that followed was just as telling. Traders were unwilling to push prices much lower while tankers were still being hit and while there was no confirmed agreement to point to. In a market shaped by uncertainty, the absence of talks can be almost as powerful as the presence of conflict.
For importers, the volatility itself is a problem. Refiners and airlines cannot plan confidently when the price of a barrel can move several dollars on a single statement or incident. For producers and shipping companies, the same uncertainty affects decisions about routes, insurance and cargoes that must be made days or weeks in advance.
Three tankers hit on Sunday, another on Tuesday
The scale of the disruption in the strait has grown steadily. According to data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 37 ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways in October — the highest monthly total since the war began. Ten attacks had already been recorded in November at the time of the latest reports.
On Sunday, three tankers were hit. Videos verified by Reuters from social media showed a Navig8 tanker on fire near the coast of Oman, a stark image of the danger facing crews in the area. Iranian state broadcaster said the tankers had used “unauthorised routes” through the strait, a claim that has become a recurring part of the dispute over who may sail where, and under what conditions.
On Tuesday, another tanker was struck northeast of Oman’s Lima, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers had caught fire after hitting naval mines on the “unauthorized route.” The differing accounts of what happened — and who was responsible — have done little to reassure shipowners, who must decide whether the risk of sending a vessel through the strait is worth taking.
Each incident adds to insurance costs, delays and uncertainty. Even a tanker that is not hit may be rerouted, held at anchor or charged a higher premium, and those costs eventually filter through to fuel prices far from the Gulf.
Why a truce may not reopen the strait quickly
One of the most important points for the market is that a political deal, even if one were reached, would not by itself restore normal shipping overnight. Analysts at LSEG made that clear in a note on November 10, warning that even if a deal is struck, more oil flowing through the waterway would still depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether shipowners are willing to take the risk. Their assessment was blunt: “attacks have not slowed.”
That caution matters because it challenges a simple assumption that many traders might otherwise make — that a truce equals open seas. Mines do not disappear when negotiators shake hands. Insurers do not immediately cut premiums while wreckage and unexploded devices remain in the water. And shipping companies, responsible for crews as well as cargoes, tend to wait for proof that a route is safe rather than for promises that it will be.
The context for that caution is the wider confrontation that has already shaped coverage of the region, including earlier reporting on US strikes on Iran. The latest incidents show that, whatever the diplomatic timetable, the security situation at sea has its own momentum.
US stockpiles, Russian refining and Ukraine talks add pressure
The Gulf is not the only source of pressure on prices. In the United States, crude oil stocks rose by 9 million barrels in the week ended November 6, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute cited by market sources. A build of that size would normally weigh on prices, because it suggests supply is outpacing demand, at least in the short term. On Wednesday, however, the Hormuz news was strong enough to outweigh that bearish signal in early trading.
In Russia, meanwhile, oil refining capacity is down by about 30% since late October after renewed Ukrainian drone attacks. That loss of refining capacity affects the supply of refined products as well as crude flows, and it adds another layer of disruption to a global market already dealing with war, sanctions and shipping risks.
There was also a diplomatic development on another front. Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for their first peace talks since February, as US envoys pushed to end the war. Any progress there could eventually change the outlook for Russian energy exports, but traders know that talks of this kind can take a long time to produce results — and that, as with Iran, a meeting is not the same as an agreement.
What to watch next
Several questions will decide where oil goes from here. The first is whether the attacks in the strait continue at their current pace. Ten incidents in the first days of November, after a record October, suggest the threat is not fading. The second is whether any diplomatic channel produces a clear, verifiable statement that talks are under way — and what, if anything, those talks cover.
The third is the practical work of making the strait safe again: clearing mines, restoring confidence among insurers and persuading owners to send their ships back through the channel. Until that work is done, or at least visibly under way, the risk premium in oil prices is likely to stay.
Official inventory data, further reports from maritime authorities and any statements from Tehran, Washington or Gulf shipping companies will also be watched closely. In a market moving on headlines, each of those can shift prices within minutes.
Conclusion
Oil’s rise on Wednesday was not a sign that the market expects a wider war, nor that it believes a truce is imminent. It was a sign that, for now, the danger to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is the more immediate and visible force. Prices fell when traders thought the threat of further strikes was receding, and they rose again when the attacks, the denials of talks and the risks to tankers came back into focus.
Until the strait is demonstrably safer — not just diplomatically quieter — that tension is likely to keep oil volatile. The next few days will show whether the early gains hold, or whether hopes of a deal once again pull prices back down. For the full Reuters report on the market move, see Reuters: Oil rises from two-month low as Hormuz shipping attacks offset Iran truce hopes.